Why not use Superman to explain scenario planning? Eric Schultz did it in this blog post some time ago!

As turbulence and change define the socio-economic landscape that brands play in, scenario planning is an increasingly valuable tool for brand mangers to embrace. Scenario planning provided one of the foundations for respected marketing academic Philip Kotler's recent book, Chaotics: The Business of Managing and Marketing in the Age of Turbulence, which he co-authored with business strategist John Caslione.

The brand is probably the most valuable, albeit volatile asset, a company has today. If 10 of Coca Cola's factories where blown up in terrorist attacks Coca Cola would prevail with just minor damages, but if the Coca Cola brand was connected to something deeply unethical, it might destroy the company.

Just look at Tiger Woods...

Well, scenario planning will not hinder catastrophes or stop the effects of changes in the environment, but it might prepare management in advance. And if you are prepared you might change course, take precautions, or at least develop a plan for what you should do to minimize the effects of any attacks on the brand.

Last month, China's customs reported that total 2009 exports were more than $1.2 trillion, well ahead of the 803.2 billion euro ($1.1 trillion) that Germany reported Tuesday.

For Germany, the figure was a drop of 18.4 percent from 2008, although exports returned to year-on-year growth in December.

"The crisis has accelerated the shift in power in world trade toward the emerging countries," said Anton Boerner, the head of Germany's BGA exporters' association.

Another example of that the financial crisis was an accelerator of change.

Scientific output has grown 11 times faster in Iran than the world average, faster than any other country. A survey of the number of scientific publications listed in the Web of Science database shows that growth in the Middle East – mostly in Turkey and Iran – is nearly four times faster than the world average.

Genetic code 2.0: Life gets a new operating system

A new way of using the genetic code has been created, allowing proteins to be made with properties that have never been seen in the natural world. The breakthrough could eventually lead to the creation of new or "improved" life forms incorporating these new materials into their tissue.

 [...]

"It's a very impressive advance that opens up new theoretical horizons in synthetic biology," says genomics pioneer Craig Venter, who heads his own institute in Rockville, Maryland, and is currently trying to create a synthetic organism from scratch.

When a business is in the midst of crisis or collapse, it’s not uncommon for shareholders to replace failed leaders with insiders who are familiar with the organization’s culture, problems, and history of bad decisions. But this paper finds that when new decision makers share even a loose psychological connection with the old boss, they are likely to support their predecessor’s decisions by continuing down the same path. The researchers argue that outsiders are better equipped to turn around failing companies or projects, citing, for example, Salomon Brothers’ appointment of the “ultimate outsider,” Warren Buffett, to correct misdeeds committed by former executives.

Note that this post is referring to an article in Journal of Experimental Social Psychology and not from a traditional management paper.

Don't design for a perfect world, because the world isn't perfect. Design simple things that are rugged, reliable, simple and easy to use; things that work even when conditions are chaotic; things that work even when they are mostly broken.

Good design point - ethical points aside...

For the most part, those calling themselves “skeptics” are nothing of the kind. More often than not, they are fully-imbibed, Koolaid-drinking Deniers, who wallow in isolated anecdotes and faux-partyline talking points, egotistically assuming that their fact-poor, pre-spun, group-think opinion entitles them to howl “corrupt fools!” at 100% of the brilliant men and women who have actually studied and are confronting an important topic…

In this follow up from David Brin on his previous post it becomes even more obvious that the behavior of the people he call's "deniers" is the same behavior, albeit not necessary concentrated in one person at one particular time, the drives the transformation of the widely held values of a objective and scientific truth into the concept of truthiness, a more relative, personal, contextual (= social constructed) and situational concept around which we base our daily decisions.

This change from truth to truthiness is really a megatrend and I have written about hit many times before, and the last time here.